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[exclusive] 2016 events and the 2017 outlook

Datetime:2017/1/4 Author:刘睿劼Editor:Ivy

2016, what meat is the least valuable? The answer is the goose, as of 2016, the sky is black swan. 2016 is destined to be an extraordinary year, and even a lot of people think that is a turning point in human history. In the next two articles, I will look back on 2016 from the political and economic analysis of the two perspectives, and look forward to the 2017. Finally, I will integrate all aspects of data information, to provide some ideas for the 2017 asset allocation.

2016 review and 2017 Outlook: political article

is the most widely known in the June 23, 2016 referendum in Britain and the United States in November 8, 2016, the u.s.. In December 1st the French president announced not to participate in next year's elections and the December 4th Italy referendum led to establishment the resignation of prime minister, is also the end of the year in Europe to the world last two Roasted Goose.

Britain's return to Europe and the United States election, have set off a wave of protectionism and anti globalization. In the future, this trend is likely to intensify. As a matter of fact, the government announced the employment rate, the GDP data are good, people still feel oneself live is not good, this is a personal experience, is the macro data can not cover the whitewash. So in every vote, "Seclusion" and "self-sufficiency" claims are popular, more and more Western politicians, have learned to use such weapons. It is true that people's lives are not good, but the purpose of globalization is to make every country in the world a better place. Globalisation has made it possible for the world's capital to be free to pursue the most profitable investments, to make the cheapest labor market, and to sell in the largest market, which is beneficial to the economy. For many countries (especially developed countries) the essential reason of ordinary people is not good, because of the economic downturn, debt crisis, financial bubbles, the government tried to cover up the whitewash, spam bill, and excessive overdraft to maintain high economic benefits. This is not a local people were robbed of the work can be solved, the internationalization is also the best way to create jobs for each country. As for those politicians came to power after how many sentences of his campaign rhetoric can also deliver, especially unknown; although it is a "international anti isolationism" Dongfeng took office, but is it really directly to make specific action, it will encounter many obstacles, but also can not be estimated.

next year, there are still many international political events may lead to the occurrence of internationalization will reverse "they include:

2017 January: Britain's Supreme Court ruled that British Prime Minister Theresa May have the right to direct the implementation of Article 50 (given the EU countries back in Europe right and returned to Europe), if you can start. Theresa will be in March 31 before making the decision. After two years in the UK will completely back in Europe, these two years is mainly with the countries of the EU negotiations back in Europe conditions.

2017 January 20th: Trump officially entered the white house. The world's largest country will usher in the new president, trade protectionism, the threat of nuclear competition, I do not know how he will lead the United States to regain prosperity. But whether it is the market's expectations, or the performance of the mainstream media, it seems that he did not agree with what he said, still on the future of the United States to maintain a great optimism. Maybe in the end, they are really right, maybe Trump said what, and what he really will do, and not much relationship.

2017 March 15th: Holland general election, will elect 150 representatives. Candidate Geert also called out "Dexit", which is nothing new in europe. Now the western world campaign is routine, populist shouted a voice, even when isolationism, there may be more people want to borrow in the east. Whether populism can be popular, also depends on the economic recovery of the first quarter of Europe, and terrorism, the refugee problem is effectively control.

2017 April 23rd: the first round of the French presidential election. Candidate Marine Le Pen known as female Trump, claiming to lead France to withdraw from the EU, to fight against islam. The influence of France in Europe is still great, and this event deserves attention. But after Trump, the impact of the same kind of political events on the world will only gradually reduce, the market will absorb and digest these effects in advance, and more and more of these events have psychological preparation.

2017 May 19th: Iran presidential election. Iran as one of the world's biggest oil producers, and just finished the sanctions before long, this election is by the old president to continue his previous policy, and continue to compete with Trump, or will usher in a new variable? Next year, oil prices will also be a turning point because of this election.

2017 July 7th: Trump and's first G20 talks. On this day, Trump will meet at the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Putin, they had earlier on the issue of the fight against Islamic state through the phone, and the general election, also expressed the intention to exclude the cooperation with the United States and the United States and the United States and China, said the president of the United States and the United States and China, the United States and the United States, the United States and the United states. Any intimacy between the United States and Russia, are likely to Chinese strategic influence, and often adverse effects.

2017 September: German Federal election. The exact date will be between 8.27 and 10.22. In recent years, because of the excessive pursuit of "political correctness" to Europe (especially Germany) broughtMany refugees and the increasingly tough economy, Merkel's support rate has been declining, around her criticism is also increasing. Populism is likely to once again be used by politicians. Germany as the EU's absolute leader, this event is worthy of attention.

well, I've looked into the terrorist attacks of 2016 and put it in a political event.

as shown above, a total of 1792 terrorist attacks occurred in 2016, there were 15895 victims were killed. A terrorist attack is more serious areas including the United States, Europe, and India Oros (actually China also), is the most serious in the Middle East, is the most populous country in Iraq, Nigeria and afghanistan. Since, the number of victims of terrorist attacks on the rise, while in 2011 the figure began to rise sharply. Comparison of 2014, 2015 and 2016 of the data can be seen in the past two years, the world has made some efforts in the fight against terrorism, the number of victims began to decline. I hope this trend can be maintained, the 2017 terrorist attacks can continue to reduce, which is a good thing for the market. The biggest impact of terrorism on the economy is not directly affect the supply and demand, but rather directly affect the expected, and the market has injected too many uncertainties. Most of the political events that took place in

2017 were less than 2016 years old, but there may not be much impact on the market in 2016. It is the so-called "bad, three and exhausted," after the 2016 withdrawal of Europe and the United States after the election, the market has gradually affected the impact of such political events. The liquidity of funds in 2017 has become the main factor affecting the market price. The specific trend analysis I will be in a detailed economic analysis is all one by one.

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