2016.11.9 the day finally came, although before the election at the mainstream media coverage one-sided preaching Hilary has been a winner, but finally won the president Trump. However, than Trump was elected more unexpected, is the three day of the U.S. stock market.
after the election, the United States stock market, even up three days. The mainstream media is divided into two categories: 2-faced and belated effort. Who is in the belated effort to say "Trump" popular ", had a hunch he is elected", "core Trump victory is his understanding of the real way of American economy", "Trump on behalf of the American people true scream," his daughter is a magic weapon for winning him, his family, and in perfect harmony refined, first lady of beauty"...... But this is not the majority, most of the two sides are direct. These media from 11.10 in the morning, began overwhelming, Trump took office, a positive for the US economy, his policy than he said to be gentle, will stimulate domestic demand, promote the reform of the United States, once again standing, there are brick house, Trump was elected to the U.S. stock very limited. Me Excuse????? If my memory is not a problem, in the general election, up to half a year's time, you do not seem to say so ah???
in fact, no matter how the media said that the impact of the Trump office on the world economy, the total depends on the Trump campaign when the policy promised it. Let's see what he has said.
Trump policy wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, not on the tear, this is undoubtedly to increase trade barriers (because of the North American Free Trade Agreement to cancel the barriers); Trump even threatened to let us out of the WTO (World Trade Organization), announced to get before hand tore Obama TPP (trans Pacific Strategic), economic partners so as to reduce the US trade deficit. He suggested that China as a "currency manipulator", so as to increase tariffs on Chinese exports, which all seem to be protectionism, right? So many multinational enterprises in the United States, this increase in trade barriers to the policy, it will bring a higher profit for these companies? In addition to Trump's immigration policy and overseas labor policies aimed at protecting local labor and employment market, this is true in itself, but it inevitably causes the enterprise production cost rise (international cooperation is conducive to let each country play their respective advantages in production, thus reducing total cost), will make profits fall ah. Trump proposed some construction plans to be busy at putting up installations, it has a role in promoting the economy and employment, this is not his office to carry out after the things, how the market at a time when he was elected before the odds rose don't expect, not going down? In addition to this, the money to be busy at putting up installations, where? Is to continue borrowing, continued monetary easing? To continue borrowing to increase fiscal deficits had no problem, but the deficit did not mention the way people, isn't this America increased the risk of the market? If we continue to use monetary easing policy, the dollar is bound to depreciate, the dollar will lose the attractiveness of assets, long-term cause of the outflow of funds, the market is not more should fall?
put the U.S. stock market on the side, I later analysis of stocks, I first settle each market mentality these days. (each chart compares the stocks of S& P500). Upright people of Mexico
: the relationship between
and the United States: the most famous is a wall will be built, the most deadly is the "North American Free Trade Agreement", if Trump took office, Mexico will likely lose the biggest trade partner, the economy will collapse.
10.28 restart the FBI mail door survey: fml! The thought that Trump did not hope, and we are going to die, to die. FBI
11.5 announced that Hilary was not guilty! Live here! And you can run in the field of marijuana! Announced this thing two days before the election, Hilary victory firmly! Trump
11.8 was elected: end! Egg! La I choose the dog!
analysis: upright Mexico market is a barometer of the real American election, the market performance has been expected to follow in the walk, is completely embodied in the confidence of investors. Trump after the election, started a lot of money out of the market (even from Mexico), and no one is willing to offer the market, the great escape triggered at any moment, the stock market plummeted.
than the American people is enthusiastic about the election of Canada people: the relationship between
and the United States: the United States is Canada's largest trading partner, the main export object, also enjoy the "North American Free Trade Agreement, if the Trump office, may increase the trade barriers, may take the energy independence route, may also indirectly detonated a wave of refugees in Canada at the same time, but also can repair the pipeline, there may be rapid increase interest rates so that the rapid depreciation caused by Canadian capital flight, all more or less sad.
10.28 FBI restart message door survey: Sorry! The thought that Trump did not hope, this is a major challenge to our economy. FBI
11.5 announced the innocence of Hilary: Sorry! Live here! Hilary took office means immutable, the best of the best, let us make a fortune! Trump
11.8 was elected: Sorry...... In a good way, it may not be entirely up to the "North American Free Trade Agreement" to do so, but we can fix it! However, Sorry, the heart is still a good panic, very safe, barriers to trade, the influx of refugees, plus interest, we are really ready to meet these challenges? How do you want to feel that the general trend is not good ah......
analysis: for the Canadian market, has been volatile for a long period of time, this is because Canada in recent years the economy was not good. Canada is rich in resources, labor costs, with much land and few people are extremely expensive, is a very dependent on import and export trade of the country. Trump challenges than opportunities, the key is the Canadian government's existing trade policy may need to change (to go to the international search for more reliable partners, but geographical location has become a big disadvantage). Another threat comes from the refugee problem, and the Trudeau administration is particularly fond of free to help refugees in advance to enjoy the treatment of paradise, was poor enough to the economy, which may be worse.
and the United States both cooperation and compete with European people: the relation between
and America: the EU is still one of the world's largest economy, and the relationship between the United States and cooperation and competition. For example, Germany's luxury car is currently the world's largest market is China and the United states. Trump trade protection and homegrown logic, is not a small blow to europe. Opportunities to compete in the global market, Europe will gain some advantage, thanks to the United States to withdraw from the. But in general, the European economy would have been bad enough, if you lose the largest partner, the economy will inevitably be hit. In addition, Trump is likely to raise interest rates soon after taking office, which is a major blow to the euro assets (to know that the European countries are currently negative interest rates). Now she was in poison again this time people on the neck with a knife, to end the euro.
10.28 restart the FBI mail door survey: Bloody Hell! The thought that Trump did not hope, so the euro assets doomed. FBI
11.5 announced the innocence of Hilary: Brilliant! Live here! Life change radically too fast, it is too stimulating! Trump
11.8: I'm going...... First of all, there should be opportunities, but how to think that this wave to lose ah...... Interest rates, trade barriers, according to the character of the Trump estimation of our banking industry may also become aggravated punishment, manufacturing banking stock to double, double play, this is QuadraKill, the opportunity is, challenges in sight, the stock price slightly higher, to find the plate immediately withdraw......
analysis: the European market is essentially the same as the hope. Europe continues to contribute to a situation of tripartite confrontation with the United States to negotiate, whether it is talk about monetary policy or talk about fines or trade or debt default or the present situation in Europe is poisoned already deep, linger. If we can continue in a relaxed environment for life, and secretly with other countries to talk about the new cooperation, pay the fine or get out of it, and then gradually to the refugee problem to solve (HA) there are a slim chance of survival. Trump after taking office, the European car may not sell (they want to support domestic products), money is likely to collapse, coupled with the wave of refugees and the British retreat European stimulus, the only powers of Europe may be set off against the international movement, the EU may face risks and even disintegration......
heart mouths mud flood (Japanese) tight relationship between
and the United States: the United States after World War II a little bitch hit, U.S. allies in Asia's largest U.S. restricted pawn China, TPP (trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership) benefit from the country's largest, the United States is Japan's most important trade and military cooperation partner.
10.28 restart the FBI mail door survey: masaka! The thought that Trump did not hope, that we have finished, Mie butterfly!
11.5 FBI announced that Hilary was innocent! This can and the United States live Xiaoxiao the world of mortals company! One day after
11.9 Trump was elected: Hongdu mud! And run away! A library of a library! Trump
11.10 was elected second days after the election: Nani?! Why the United States there is a peaceful place? Why the rise? Why suddenly changed the script? Fuck！ Too late to think! Hurry to buy! Hurry up and come back, must be firmly committed to the United States boss table loyalty!
(Could not get a word ah: take life in acting, the acting, worth a statue of Oscar)
analysis: Trump after he took office, is certainly more harm than good for the Japanese economy. Trump has made it clear that to hand tear TPP, the increase in trade barriers, the Japanese economy is a huge damage, Japan is to sell the car to sell electrical appliances ah. At the same time, Japan has long been in the negative interest rates on the way mud feet deep, QQE play flying, the United States if the rapid increase in interest rates, the yen assets will instantly explode. Trump also proposed to let allies for military protection, after taking office may reduce intervention on military territorial disputes, so if the U.S. aircraft carrier in front of the moment to evacuate, we may see wearing a vest on the cold wind in the drag in the messy sdf...... The relationship between China and Japan has never really warmed up these years, in addition to the United States, Japan is difficult to find a decent partner, the economy is bound to be more than the short-term challenges. So, in addition to Japan and the United States to try to please Trump, but this seems to explain the performance of all the Japanese stock market integrity.
finally, let's look at US stocks.
look at the map, it is clear that before the Trump election success, for the market, Trump is a threat, Hilary is a savior. And in the last period before the election, the world's market, but also think that all the pace of the market is surprisingly consistent. However, from the end of the election day, the U.S. stock market began to freeze, and gradually all the other global market draw further apart. As expected before are totally nonsense. Had a little bit of statistics students can see, before Trump took office and a rise in the stock market correlation coefficient close to -1 (fundamental completely negative correlation), and he did after taking office, the correlation coefficient has become an instant +1 (positive correlation). Do not take this to play, ah, you let other people's analysts have been in vain to build all the models.
what is it all about? The following is the core of this article.
first of all, from the United States market before the election pricing, this election is expected to start should be Hilary (Hilary will continue to win the main policy of the Obama administration, the market will not change much, the business model is not affected by a cut, so the market will rise slowly follow the prescribed order.). All the news media are touting Hilary win, influential, say people are all for Hilary endorsement (sports entertainment stars, the president and his wife, former president, big capitalists, investment benchmark stock market and Buffett), the media, too. With Hilary's chances of winning gradually increase, the market has gradually go high. Until FBI announced the resumption of mail door survey, Trump catch up, the market started instantly scared urine, stocks since 1980, one of the longest continuous decline (9 consecutive days).
if the market before the pricing is to take advantage of the favorable impact on the market after Hilary took office, then the Trump victory these favorable effects will also disappear, the stock market should fall. The Trump seems to regain hope during the reaction of the stock market, the market does not believe that Trump took after the favorable impact on the U.S. economy will be greater than Hilary, so the market will not fall. This also explains, when Hilary once again returned to the ring, full of hope of winning the time (the media also reached a climax at the same time, the stock market after a day) before nine days all fell, ready for Hilary to celebrate.
can imagine 8 night, in all the stock exchange, as well as institutional investors in the office, the champagne is ready, has been held in the hands of a shake, and plans to Hilary came to power on the radio out. The orders to buy stocks have been entered into the system, and so on.
then, Trump came to power.
the world suddenly quiet for a few seconds.
then, bang, champagne or spray out, people celebrated together, as cheerful as a lark, fireworks exploding in the air, the people of the United States to suppress inner ecstasy, and lively hope for a better future, they awaited thing, finally got his wish to happen, they ushered in the heart good president, the Savior of the world, the U.S. economy will usher in unprecedented prosperity, people crazy to buy the press button, the stock market overnight as the clouds.
and so on, is there a little bit strange? I also feel a little strange, a little bit of the feeling of the spirit of victory, there is a little "1984" of the atmosphere. I can't describe the feeling, just feel everything in front of me, and suddenly it's not so true.
night scene seems to be that the stocks for Hilary came to rehearse for half a year, in the last few days of rehearsals are very successful, and reached an unprecedented high degree of understanding, the Trump suddenly came to power, but the scripts are written, rehearsed for so long, but also how to play such a speech? So they yipaidatui, continue to play now singing, now dancing Hilary came to play out wholly intact.
but they do, in the end why? No integrity, swollen face market, no one can understand, why?
here I would like to make a bold guess the reasons behind this. The largest U.S. stock market participants, should be the U.S. local institutional investors. This includes the entire Wall Street, also includes such as Buffett, the big capitalist. They are most afraid of, should be the market because of panic selling, because in this way, their own assets, it is to hold to die in the hands of the. In particular, such as the epic Trump black swan, but also directly related to the U.S. economy (unlike the British back to the United States caused by the impact of most of the indirect), caused by the panic should be great. Before the election market, institutional investors will not easily intervene, because they already have a lot of money in it, then they need more is to understand the market reaction to respond to the market reaction after the election. At this time the market is very free, fully reflects the different attitudes and performance of investors on the outcome of the election. By observing the market reaction is not difficult to find, Trump on the stock market fell, Hilary on the stock market rose. The whole of the Wall Street to Hilary endorsement, Buffett is publicly expressed support for Hilary, of course, they want the stock market up, so that they can earn money.
but it's good to die, Trump. This group of old fox certainly know what the market will react, if with selling, it must lead directly to the stock market crash, light has sold no one to buy, the market will even freeze, the market reaction in 2008 will even repeat the worst loss or their own. Fortunately, this is not 2008, no one went bankrupt, no one debt maturity, everything can be saved. So the old fox wanted to help a plan: "how much they left, how much we must first stabilize the market, at the same time, let the media hype Trump, re shaping the market bullish expectations, such as the panic recession, we quietly retreat, let the retail disk access". So we can see from the figure, Trump was elected the first day of 9, trading volume more than 7, more than 50%, the stock market rose more than 7, but less than half. Second days 10, more than 9 of the volume of transactions, the stock rose significantly, but minimal. On the surface, these two days the stock is up. But 10, two 9 days of trading volume, is the highest in the past month (above the average of 70% or more), why is it still a little bit of it? That is because, when all the people are in one direction of the transaction (buy together, thrown together), will the market volatility is relatively large, and when the market is completely different to the two forces in the direction of running time, while it was sold, the other side immediately answer, the market will not appear big fluctuation. We all played tug of war. If both sides great disparity in strength, the rope will soon be a drag in the past, and when both sides of the rope will not move well-matched in strength. Such a large amount of trading, it is precisely that the occurrence of panic selling, really happened. Not have plummeted skyrocketing prices, more that the other side just behind how much how many, and did not intend to really spend lots of money to raise the stock price (the cost is too high, will put themselves locked). Look at these days America throughout the outbreak of demonstrations and rallies, panic, even some people in California want to start back, this kind of environment, stocks still be careless with slow growth. Who the hell is that? Where is the confidence?
this help the old fox is clearly in the hands of the remaining bullets, whitewash. They try to reverse market expectations, when the market generally believes that the arrival of the bull market, they can be sold overnight at a high level, and then safe retreat. Then is the inevitable result of market panic selling, and they are able to play at the right time, and then the hunters. This is not to cut wool.
told a small episode, has been publicly supported Buffett's Hilary, two days after the election in Trump, assets rose $62 billion dollars, became the world's second richest man. Grandpa, you are my grandfather, witty you already see through everything.
actually this world, it is very simple. The law that we have discovered is the law of the things that should be. However, we cannot expect, is cowardly and greed of human nature, humanity is backfired when self anesthesia, is human blind optimism during the crisis of the. I do not know how many "invisible hand" in this market, in order to own interests, and constantly control it. Now the "zero sum" game, bigger and bigger, the chips on the table you intend to pile up like a mountain hand, pick up the disc?
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