financial asset allocation proposal (special)
this week in the asset allocation, I would like to talk about politics. This article is specifically published in the United States election day, is to give every attention to my readers and friends to provide some of my views, for everyone to make judgments in the investment. About this election, dramatic events emerge in an endless stream. Many people do not realize that we have just experienced last week, the U.S. stock market fell for the longest time since 1980 (9 consecutive days), compared with the 7 day of the financial crisis in 2008, but also a long time. This is the fear of the investment market for the Trump election, and this fear also because FBI announced on Sunday does not prosecute Clinton and eventually stopped, today's stock market rose more than 2%.
a few months this farce to look down, I believe many people like me, until today only a sigh (until when I write this article, the TV was playing the NBA game, and inter field advertising is a variety of Trump charges). Now the media ah. In fact, no matter how disappointed we think about politics, the so-called democracy is how ridiculous, when we do investment choice, should size up the situation, the flow, and do not own money.
in fact, the global market in recent months has been elected to the Clinton in accordance with the pricing, whether it is the stock market, currency, gold, or the bond market. Here I come to talk about, who was elected, the market will have a kind of impact on it.
first is the stock market. I still insist on the previous point of view, the U.S. stock market, the existence of a high valuation of the problem. And this Trump is also repeatedly stressed. Plus Trump's trade protectionism, if the power of many multinational companies in the United States are likely to face a threat - at least investors and investment institutions are so think. In the past ten days of the market because of the mail door to restart the investigation and concerns Trump came to power, has been ahead of time to make a response, FBI yesterday announced that Hilary nothing, today's stock market immediately back up. If tomorrow Trump really came to power, then the U.S. stocks will face a continuous crash. But this fall is not necessarily completely wrong, only to bear gold, behind the irrational sell-off, many good companies are likely to be hunters. Of course, I have always recommended to the stock market value based investment, short-term investors, if there is no clear goal or accurate insider information, or should be far away from the stock market, long-term investors can consider the approach. Trump if he took office, the pharmaceutical industry will be very happy, the banking industry will be temporarily relieved of the insurance industry, the construction industry may usher in a bull market (after all, to build a wall).
and as previously said, the market is in accordance with the Clinton winning to pricing, she took office and Obama is almost no difference, the United States will continue in accordance with the original trajectory. Even if she wins, the market will not have much room to rise, after all, since last year to stocks again raised, call only global nowhere to go and the Fed funds rate hike in a sound, not profit, not the value. Maybe Clinton continuous decline came after short-term stock market rebounded last week set aside some space, but to say to usher in a bull market or S& P500 reached 2200 points, that is absolutely groundless statement. Limited upside in the stock market, the stock market is generally overestimated, this approach should be cautious. But the benefits are more predictable market, as the interest rate signal more obvious, the funds will continue to flow into the stock market, perhaps the U.S. stocks will not usher in the short term it should be adjusted. If Clinton came to power, for the pharmaceutical industry should be disastrous, the banking industry will also hit (plus already in the low interest rate environment linger). Compared to Trump came to power, I would be more recommended in the case of Hilary took office to reduce the holdings of U.S. stocks.
let's talk about money. The dollar is sure to fall after the Trump came to power in developed countries. Global concerns about Trump trade protectionism, as well as concerns about the volatility of the U.S. market, will make the U.S. dollar assets are sold or holdings. Of course, some emerging market countries may be the currency of the avalanche, the first is the Mexico. This is not a problem, but because Mexico has lost its most important trading partner. In this way, the economic downturn is inevitable, asset selling capital flight is the trend of the times, the country's currency to finish. Trump for China apparently is not friendly, many policies came after may limit the export of Chinese (the United States is still the second largest trade partner China), resulting in the devaluation of the renminbi to pressure. Although I think Trump some things just talking about it, it doesn't sound like so much less aggressive, but market expectations so, also can only follow the expected monetary value (go financial is this interesting, you think of no use, you know the rest of the world is how to think). For the Canadian dollar, this should be a good news, dollar uncertainty makes more money may flow into the Canadian market, because the other developed countries in the world, Canada is still relatively economic vitality and more stable. Also make up a sentence, I do not think Trump on the stage of China's overall economy is all bad, Trump is very stingy with the allies, if he came to power, the system to complete the South China Sea, the South China sea,Diaoyu Islands and so on, China will have the advantage, but it is a good opportunity to develop the economy (the so-called boring big money, +1s).
contrast, if Hilary came to power, the existing policy almost never have to change what the dollar will be more stable, and if the interest rate follow the prescribed order words, the dollar is a long-term upward trend. It is worth mentioning that the people of Mexico, they should cheer, their money is certainly to be up three days.
besides gold and other precious metals. If Trump came to power, the gold will be God. Yes, the market is so afraid of Trump. Although gold has no use value, not dividends, storage costs are high but it is huge, the human value of final settlement tool, is thousands of years of human currency eventually patron, not only because of its beautiful and easy segmentation, no rust, but mainly because it is the stock co.. In today's monetary policy so abused, all countries are losing their credit, people have to look for gold hedge. Economic turmoil in the period, the stock market volatility is too large, the uncertainty is too high, people still want to find gold hedge. The rise in the value of gold is entirely due to the rise in global demand, representing a decline in investor confidence. This also explains why Trump came to power after the gold will surge. If Hilary came to power, gold will fall some, because the funds will flow to the U.S. dollar assets, the global demand for safe haven.
well, say so much today, you have to get out before you come tomorrow. We may find that the asset allocation proposal is a bit different, because of the special nature of its time and events. Next week to resume as usual, is divided into short-term recommendations and long-term recommendations, combined with the latest news and information. Hope that we can enjoy the discussion.
: financial statement is a personal thing, must be combined with their financial situation and risk tolerance, understanding of the product, the environment and considering the specific financial goals, financial plan and professional financial planner must develop. Welcome to pay attention to the bottom of the two-dimensional code and financial conduct in-depth discussion, the volume of the body to develop the most suitable financial plan.
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